Posted by: NatureIsAwesome | October 8, 2011 @ 10:55 am

A Soggy Saturday

This is the radar from 5:00pm last night to 9:30am this morning.

Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.
Base Reflectivity image from Key West, FL Base Velocity image from Key West, FL Base Reflectivity image from Miami, FL Base Velocity image from Miami, FL Composite base reflectivity for the Southeastern USA

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A sub-tropical low is forming to our south and can even become a tropical storm if conditions continue to strengthen the upper levels. High pressure has set up in the Mid-Atlantic States allowing for substantial increase in moisture over FL. We can expect a wet Saturday across much of the state and don’t expect much in the way of migrants but pelagic birds may be close enough to view from the coast. Radar last night was quiet with most of the activity visible over the panhandle as birds were moving NE->SW and in some instances west into Alabama. This weather pattern should be in place for the remainder of the weekend. Conditions start to improve on Monday with a SW wind and less precipitation.

*Severe weather update*
The onslaught of thunderstorms over S. Florida this weekend should be taken seriously as a risk of severe thunderstorms, flooding, hail and strong gusting winds are forecast. Some of the t-storms are capable of producing gusts upwards to 60+mph, torrential downpours, lighting strikes and the possibility of hail. The potential for isolated tornadoes and waterspout formation is possible as the low-level jet builds and low-level shear in on the rise today. If you like to surf then what are you waiting for? Surf conditions are getting better and will only look better tomorrow with sweet 15+ sec periods. We don’t see many days out of the year that surfing would be great but this weekend looks great!

Now back to the birds. Monday – Thursday are looking good as of now. Winds will favor birders along the east coast but by no means will the west coast be left out. Friday is starting to shape up as well but we are waiting on later forecast models to make a decision on whether a cold front could push south and bring the birds along with it.

If you can dodge the rain, get out and take a look around between rain showers; weather patterns as such are usually good for finding a rarity. A strong onshore wind is prevalent through out the weekend and birders wishing to see some pelagic birds should head for the coast. Please pass by and share your sightings, we appreciate all of your comments.

Nature is Awesome,
Angel and Mariel

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