Posted by: NatureIsAwesome | October 9, 2011 @ 12:01 pm

A Statewide Low; Migrants In Holding Pattern

This is the radar from 5:00pm last night to 9:30am this morning.

Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.
Base Reflectivity image from Key West, FL Base Velocity image from Key West, FL Base Reflectivity image from Miami, FL Base Velocity image from Miami, FL Composite base reflectivity for the Southeastern USA

The last two days have been horrible for bird migration and excellent in the way of much needed precipitation across much of the state. In some areas rainfall estimates of 8+ inches gives us an indication that tropical moisture was dragged northward into our region. The major synoptic factors that affected us include a well established upper-level trough in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a strong wind gradient due to the stationary high pressure in the Mid-Atlantic. A second trough developed across the FL Straits and SE Gulf which amplified the amount of precipitation that was delivered to FL.

The strong east wind gradient that was causing occasional gale force winds will weaken through out the day as a surface low builds into the SE Gulf. As all this takes place winds have already begun to shift behind the low and a drier southerly surface flow is starting to take shape. Water Vapor Imagery indicates that drier mid to upper air will advance northward into FL. This is clearly visible as you watch the SE mosaic radar. You can see drier air setting up to the south and as the night goes on and the morning arrives, convection is much more prevalent north of Lake O indicating the advancement of the drier air.

The forecast is starting to take shape with the aforementioned low expected to move into the Gulf shifting the winds to the south behind it. This can very well turn out to be a grand week, chuck full of migrants if the winds cooperate to our north. Winds will not need to be optimal as migrants are starting to intermingle as Sparrows are showing up as Warblers are waiting on better migration conditions. We expect a massive movement of migrants to the south in the coming days and with southerly winds shaping up for the rest of the week we expect a pile up of migrants this week. Conditions as such are wonderful for birders but birds need to move south! Good thing that S. FL is much like their wintering homes and should keep them happy until the Zugunruhe takes over.

Please remember to “like” our Facebook Page if you are on the social media platform. Here we share more than just what you see on our site. Keep up with changing meteorological conditions, migrant movement predictions, radar images and best of all a place for us all to talk and share our thoughts. It can be a great place to share our sightings and talk bird migration! Hope to see some more comments on the site in the following days as there should be plenty to talk about.

Nature is Awesome,
Angel and Mariel

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